Business Forecasts Reports
Business Forecast Reports examine each country's Political Outlook
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Business Monitor Online
Online Service offering global Country Risk, Financial Markets, Industry and Company Intelligence, Analysis, Data and Forecasts.
Country Risk - Emerging Europe
Metrics
BMI's Europe country risk team produces comprehensive analysis and forecasts on economic, political and business environment developments in 49 developed, emerging and frontier markets across the region. Our analysts produce 39 quarterly Business Forecast Reports which provide analysis of the latest economic and political developments, together with 5- and 10-year forecasts. Key areas of focus include real GDP growth, monetary policy, exchange rates, the balance of payments, foreign debt and FDI. In addition, our Europe analysts are responsible for 3 monthly Monitors, which incorporate our very latest 2-year forecasts across a dozen key indicators, as well as BMI's view of the latest developments affecting regional economies. All of this analysis feeds into our Daily Financial Alert product, which provides breaking views on countries across the region, and into our online service.
Methodology
BMI's forecasting methodology is based on a qualitative and quantitative approach. Rigorous and systematic analysis of key macroeconomic trends on a country-by-country basis is combined with the use of an in-house econometric model to benchmark and stress test research findings. The country-by-country approach coheres with a top-down global macro and global asset class view to give a more holistic insight into the economic outlook of a given country.
BMI's political and macroeconomic risk analysis is sharpened by in-depth analysis and forecasts of global financial markets. Given the highly reflexive interplay between the macro and the markets, BMI's macro forecasting is enhanced by expert analysis on the markets, which in turn is being driven by our underlying macro perceptions.
The interaction and cohesion between each area of analysis, whether pure macro or financial market gives a much broader assessment of the key risks in question, and adds extra credibility to the underlying BMI view. This holistic approach has been instrumental in BMI's successful track record to date on forecasting major macro trends and asset price movements across global emerging markets.
Complementing the Country Risk and Financial Markets analysis is a Commodities service that provides short-term targets, medium-term forecasts, views and analysis on over 16 key commodities, including oil, industrial and precious metals, softs and grains. The commodities research also includes supply and demand forecasts, supplemented with key inventory analysis.The Country Risk Team
This diversity in risk analysis – political, macroeconomic, financial market - is reflected in the varied skill set of the Country Risk team, which is made up of highly skilled analysts. The team boasts a mixture of political scientists, economists, and experienced financial market analysts.